Markets in Focus

Gain 3 insights in 5 minutes from Meeder Investment Management—every other week. Investors and financial advisors get informed on the latest market trends from Co-Chief Investment Officer, Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, CFP® of MeederInvestment.com. This is a convenient and quick way to get access to current financial information that you can share with your clients.

 

Whether you’re looking at financial management insights around capital markets, investments, mutual funds, portfolios, retirement, public funds, cash management, wealth management, private client, financial advisor, or wealth advisor—you’ll benefit from Mr. Bell’s deep understanding and tracking of today’s important topics.

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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer • October 15, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Market breadth strong start to Q4

» U.S. small-cap equities showing life again

» Labor market shortages continue 

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer • October 1, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Weak momentum in September

» Labor shortage continues

» Powell in focus

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer • September 17, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Momentum has been weak across U.S. equities

» Second half of September is historically weak

» Small businesses aren’t very optimistic 

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer • September 3, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Small-cap stocks show signs of life

» Bond market is still not expecting high long-term inflation

» U.S. personal savings headed lower 

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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[SPECIAL EDITION] Markets in Focus: Cracks in the Foundation
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer • August 20, 2021

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The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high in August and officially posted its fastest start to a bull market since World War II, doubling its value in just 354 trading days (Exhibit 1). While this momentum is certainly impressive, we are not convinced the next leg of this bull market will be so easy.

 

EXHIBIT 1: THE CURRENT BULL MARKET IS OFF TO THE FASTEST START SINCE WORLD WAR II

Source: Blomberg

 

3 reasons for caution 

» Market breadth is not supporting the trend

» Rise in Covid-19 cases negatively impacting consumer behavior

» August & September are the worst-performing months, historically

 

MARKET BREADTH IS NOT SUPPORTING THE TREND
Market breadth, the measure of how many individual stocks are participating in an uptrend, has been very poor in recent months. Despite indexes like the S&P 500 and the NYSE Composite making new all-time highs, few stocks are participating in the rally.

As shown in Exhibit 2, with the NYSE Composite Index at an all-time high, the NYSE Cumulative Stocks-Only Advance/Decline Line finished nearly 2% below its all-time high. In addition, only 69% of stocks on the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average (Exhibit 3). There is weakness under the surface of this stock market.

EXHIBIT 2: A MARKET BREADTH DIVERGENCE OCCURRED BETWEEN THE NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX & A/D LINE

Source: Bloomberg

EXHIBIT 3: A MARKET BREADTH DIVERGENCE OCCURRED BETWEEN THE NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX & A/D LINE

Source: Bloomberg

 

AN INCREASE IN COVID-19 CASES IS NEGATIVELY IMPACTING CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
Consumers are starting to react to the concerns about the rise in COVID-19 cases. For example, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey recently reached 70, its lowest level since 2011. July retail sales in the U.S. also experienced a larger-than-expected decline of -1.1%.

Alternative data is showing the same thing. As Exhibit 4 illustrates, the number of restaurant diners, airline travelers, and hotel revenue per room have all slowed during the past several weeks.

EXHIBIT 4: AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER ARE HISTORICALLY THE TWO WORST PERFORMING MONTHS OF THE YEAR

Source: Guggenheim Investments, Bloomberg, STR. Data as of 8.17.2021 for Diners and TSA, 8.7.2021 for hotels

 

SEASONALITY: AN UNCERTAIN TIME OF YEAR
The ‘doldrums” is a popular nautical term that refers to the belt around the Earth near the equator, where sailing ships face windless waters, sometimes getting stuck. A place no sailor wants to be, this area serves as a collision course for trade winds from both the northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere.

This term has been popularly borrowed by investors as a reference to the stock market’s behavior between July and Labor Day weekend each year. Known as the “summer doldrums,” this period typically consists of below-average trading volume and liquidity, often leading to higher volatility and below-average returns (Exhibit 5). September 2020 was a great example, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 10% and not reaching a new high until November.

EXHIBIT 5: AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER ARE HISTORICALLY THE TWO WORST PERFORMING MONTHS OF THE YEAR

Source: Bloomberg

 

 

The views expressed herein are exclusively those of Meeder Investment Management, Inc., are not offered as investment advice, and should not be construed as a recommendation regarding the suitability of any investment product or strategy for an individual’s particular needs. Investment in securities entails risk, including loss of principal. Asset allocation and diversification do not assure a profit or protect against loss. There can be no assurance that any investment strategy will achieve its objectives, generate positive returns, or avoid losses.
 
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios, or holdings are given as of the date provided and are subject to change at any time. No offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product is intended. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties.
 
Investment advisory services provided by Meeder Asset Management, Inc.
 
©2021 Meeder Investment Management, Inc.
 
0116-MAM-8/20/21-12972
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer • August 6, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Equity indexes near highs with weak stock participation

» Despite strong Q2 earnings, 2022 earnings expectations fall

» Vaccinations outpacing new COVID-19 cases

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer • July 23, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» U.S. equities experience brief volatility

» The average U.S. stock is down more than 10%

» Unusually calm 2021 faces seasonality

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Co-Chief Investment Officer • July 9, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» U.S. equity trend is not very healthy

» Total products out of stock still elevated

» Global equity fund flows largest on record

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • June 25, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Laggards Lead U.S. Stocks Higher

» Yield Curve Flattens After Fed Meeting

» Lumber Prices Fall

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • June 11, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Top 3 reasons for inflation

» Job seekers may be on their way

» Stock market breadth is very strong

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets In Focus
Markets In Focus

Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • May 28, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» We may be at herd immunity right now

» Boost to employment could come soon

» What does history tell us to look for in the next 12 months?

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets In Focus
Markets In Focus

Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • May 14, 2021

CLICK ON THE VIDEO BELOW TO WATCH

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Inflation Surges Above Expectations

» Wage Growth Still Elevated

» The Fed & Bond Market Expect Inflation to Calm

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • April 30, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Parks & restaurants outperformed during the pandemic

» Market isn’t fully reacting to higher taxes yet

» Aging population could combat inflation

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • April 16, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Vaccination trends indicate herd immunity by summer

» Biggest 12-month gain in S&P 500 history

» Europe is finally breaking out

 

 

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • March 31, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Americans are moving again

» Rapid rise in interest rates weigh on technology stocks

» The riskiest parts of the stock market outperformed during the first year of the recovery

 

 

 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • March 19, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» Implications of inflation rising in February

» Interest rates continue higher, but don't panic just yet

» The U.S. consumer is loaded with cash

 
 

 

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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Markets in Focus
By Joe Bell, CFA, CMT, Portfolio Manager • March 5, 2021

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KEY TAKEAWAYS 

» U.S. IPO activity at record levels

» Record equity ETF flows in February

» S&P 500 performance after bear market lows

 
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Commentary offered for informational and educational purposes only. Opinions and forecasts regarding markets, securities, products, portfolios or holdings should not be construed as predictions or recommendations.  All information is given as of the date shown and is subject to change at any time. Nothing herein should be construed as an offer to sell, solicitation, or recommendation of any security or investment product. Certain information and data has been supplied by unaffiliated third parties as indicated. Although Meeder believes the information is reliable, it cannot warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of the information or materials offered by third parties. 
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